Archmage Rises is a role-playing game set inside a living breathing simulated open world. We were greenlit in 10 days.
I just returned from GenCon 2016 (turnstile count 201,852, uniques 60,819) where I demoed Archmage Rises to the public for the first time. It was the first time I took pre-orders for the game. I had no idea what would happen. Overall the Con was extremely successful for us and exceeded my revenue expectations. Here is what worked, what didn’t, why, and lessons learned.
Signaling
In The Inner Lives of Markets the authors explain why a 1970 paper by economist George Akerlof influences almost all purchase decisions made today between strangers. Whether it is through the Internet, or in person at a Con, you are dealing with complete strangers.
Akerlof’s paper "The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism" is about information asymmetry between buyers and sellers. He illustrates the theory with the used car market: the previous owner of a vehicle knows if the car was driven and maintained well or not. The buyer has no access to this information, and even if asked, cannot be certain the answer is truthful. No buyer of a used car wants to buy a “lemon” (a car found to be defective just after purchase). Therefore, if a buyer is willing to pay $5,000 for a good quality used car but a lemon is only worth $1,000, and the buyer cannot easily tell the difference between them, buyers will only pay $1,000 for any used car. If they luck out with a good one, great. If not, they didn’t overpay. But even with all cars at $1,000 some lemon cars are better than others, so buyers will now only be willing to pay $500 for a really bad lemon.
The market unravels with a race to the bottom ($0).
No one with a good used car will ever sell it as the sell value is too low (better to just keep driving until it becomes a lemon) and no buyer will ever buy a used car because the market is primarily lemons.
Ironically, these forces describe exactly what caused the video game crash of 1983.
Gone are the days where every game has the Nintendo seal of quality on it. :-)
The indie game market is just as subject to these forces as used cars or cartridges. With no proven track record (brand) few gems (FTL, Stardew Valley, Gone Home, etc.) and many “lemons” (I won’t name names) buyers are wary. We saw mobile game prices quickly tumble to $1 or free. Steam games started to follow a similar path.
The solution to this dilemma is found in the economic theory of Signaling. An employer is unable to tell if any specific person will or will not be a good employee until after they are hired. So the employee uses an external system (educational credentials) to signal to the employer their quality. A degree from an ivy league school is rarer, requires more investment, and thought harder to attain, so it is concluded an employee with an ivy league education is less likely to be a “lemon”. Both the employee and employer look to a third party for “signals” of quality that are not easily duplicated. Public key encryption works similarly.
eBay uses seller rating. Amazon uses product reviews. Steam uses player reviews.
There are two things under your control for successful signaling: You and Your Booth
YOU
1. A High Price Signals Quality
One of the most important decisions you will make is done before you even step foot in the Con space.
If a quality used car sells for $5,000 and a lemon sells for $1,000 and I price my car at $1,500 what signal am I sending?
Apple sends a signal by how they price their laptops, phones, and tablets.
The first person to evaluate the quality of your game is you! the price you set is an indication to the world as to what you think of your game.
High quality AAA games sell for around $50-70 USD. If you are close to that number, you are saying something. If you are close to the price of a chocolate bar, stick of gum, or a song on iTunes, you are also saying something.
My survey of indie games results in a range from $10-$40. $40 seems to be the “III” studios like Paradox Interactive, Stardock, while $10-15 is the low end typically single developers.
I set Archmage Rises at 29.99 USD to signal the statement that I want to make: it is twice as good as a $15 game! :-)
I am in the 20’s indie price zone; yet at the top end of it. Once you set a price, that is your top end. You’ll be reducing (sales, specials, offers, etc.) from there on. So give yourself some room to maneuver.
Setting the price at $30 lets me discount it by $10 (33%) and still get $20.
When at a Con you need a call to action. A reason for them to buy RIGHT NOW from you. Not to think about it and do it later. Which by the way, rarely ever happens! Saving $10 is a compelling enough reason not to wait. The likelihood of getting a $10 discount post-release is low, you’d probably have to wait 6+ months for a steam sale.
Several people asked me at the booth “You are only asking for $20? Sure, why not.” Which is exactly the sentiment I was hoping for. This told me I was priced within the right range.
Finally, when I launch on Steam if I do a launch discount of 20% (I personally don’t find 10% compelling) I’m still getting $24 per unit. Had I started at $25 and offered 20% off, it is only $20. That extra $4,000 per thousand units (minus store fees) could be the difference between profit and looking for a new job.
Note: I am focusing purely on the signaling aspect your price point broadcasts. There is more to pricing strategy than I am describing here and you should read what more knowledgeable people say on the subject.
2. Fish where the Fish are: Pick the Right Con
Archmage Rises isn’t for everyone. It doesn’t have the fancy 3d run-around graphics of mainstream games. It’s a thoughtful game with deep immersive gameplay that works with the player’s imagination. The player has more freedom of action than any other RPG before it. We also have some very “board game-y” elements in the game, like a hex map and Event Cards that appear when you trigger a trap in a dungeon.
So who would like a 2d text-heavy thinking role playing game set in a simulated world? Tabletop role players!
The biggest gathering of tabletop RPGers in North America is GenCon in Indianapolis. This is where I determined to go. I applied for 2015 and was turned down. With my second attempt I was approved in Jan 2016. I had 8 months to turn a wish into an effective booth.
Not all Cons are the same. I’ve been to GDC. I believe that is a show & tell Con. GenCon is for players who are buying! Having attended twice previously, I knew part of the attendee preparation is bringing a fat wad of cash into the exhibit hall. Some even bring empty suitcases to carry their loot. Why? The thrill is in discovering a new game and walking away with it today. Each night the hotel lobbies (and hallways, and coffee shops) are chock full of gamers playing their latest purchases.
It was impossible for me to keep count (I tried), but I think I talked with about 1,000 people over the course of the 4 days.
99% of them liked both tabletop and computer role playing games. I remember one person who said they don’t play RPGs very much. We didn’t have much to talk about. :-) There may have been a second person.
99% of them like board games.
99% of them knew of or played Pathfinder (it helped Paizo had one of the biggest booths there). That our artist works on both Pathfinder and Archmage Rises simultaneously is helpful.
80% of them knew of Dragonlance and Raistlin (the fictional character that inspired the game)
75% of them were over 30 balancing work and family. They appreciate a character lifetime can be done in around 4 hours.
All of the above describes my core-core market. I think about them every day as I design and program. It’s not hard, because all the above describes me too. :-)
Overall this led to an extremely receptive audience to the game. Because I chose the right Con, virtually anyone walking by the booth was a potential customer. Here is just one example from the last day that proves this:
A man was walking briskly past our booth looking for something (not us!). He had a chainmail coif on his head (why not!) He wasn’t cos playing, the rest of him was street clothes. The chainmail started silver on top then changed color to be red and yellow down near his shoulders. No one was in our booth at that moment, so just as he was about past I said “Hey, nice hat!”. He stopped and turned to me and explained a little bit about it. He then asked what we were about. I gave him the 2 min pitch and he pre-ordered on the spot.
When that happened it made me realize I should have engaged more people that were just walking by instead of waiting for them to stick on something first.
3. The Introvert’s Dilemma
I’m an introvert. I type this article in a solitary room alone with my thoughts. It’s heaven.
The lights, noise, and crowds of a massive Con is hell. Or purgatory: something to be endured until it ends and I gain a huge reward.
I think there is a general misunderstanding of the terms Introvert/Extravert, so let me define them:
An introvert is someone who loses energy when with others, and regains it when alone.
An extravert is someone who gains energy when with others, and loses it when alone.
That’s it. I’ve heard p
